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.and, 26–27nuclear weapons and, 126, 157–158,Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor,159, 161–16398–101100 acts/100 days scenario, 122–124key problems of, 89, 90, 95–97, 106,other possibilities for, 126–127108, 111–112, 145–156,robotic birds in warfare and,189–194165–168, 170–171North Korea and, 110–111,in the U.S., 89, 96, 101, 106,139–140121–129, 135nuclear threat to, 157–163Third Reich, 24, 33, 99, 100nuclear weapons of, 160Time, inadequate, 61prediction markets in, 2–3Timing of occurrence:price of oil and, 174, 178–179of all-electric automobiles, 119–120rivalry with China, 131–133in Four-Measures rating, 49, 51,space race with the USSR, 20–22,65–66137–138for machine-based teaching,terrorism in, 89, 96, 101, 106,154–156121–129, 135for nuclear SuperGrid, 185–187Vietnam War and, 26, 165nuclear threat to the U.S., 161–163war in Saudi Arabia and, 195–200price of oil in $100 range, 179World War II and, 24–26, 96,of robotic birds, 170–17198–101, 161–162of terrorism in the U.S., 127–129U.S.Air Force, 52, 53–57war in Saudi Arabia, 199–200U.S.Congress, 37–38Transient effects, 75U.S.Department of Defense (DoD):TRW Inc., 20–21, 50–52aerial refueling tankers and, 53–57228IndexU.S.Department of Defense ( Cont.):Wars ( Cont.):China and, 131, 135, 138–139,robotic birds in, 165–168, 170–171141–143Saudi Arabia and, 195–200intercontinental ballistic missilesover Taiwan, 142–143(ICBMs) and, 17–22, 50–52( See also names of specific wars)nuclear weapons and, 17–19Watson, Thomas, Jr., 17satellites and, 19–22Watson, Thomas, Sr., 17U.S.Department of Homeland Security,Weather forecasting, 4–5, 28, 88123–124, 126, 127Welch, Jack, 63U.S.Department of Justice, 37–38Welfare system, 90U.S.Navy, 138–139Western Union, telegraph versusU.S.Space Foundation, 21telephone and, 12–14, 73USSR ( see Soviet Union, former)Westinghouse, electricity-basedtechnology and, 16VWhitman, Christine Todd, 182Vacuum tubes, 17, 82Wind power, 83–84, 176, 178–179Vattenfall AB, 175World War I:Venture capital, 94, 142failure to predict, 25Victoria, Queen of England, 24impact of, 24, 96Vietnam War, 26, 165World War II:Visualization, 102–103extrapolation in predicting, 77–79failure to predict, 24–25WJapanese attack on Pearl Harbor,Wal-Mart, 7398–101Wars:nuclear technology following, 52in Afghanistan, 165, 167–168postwar predictions, 25–26complexity factor and, 106–107research and development (R&D)extrapolation in predicting, 77–79following, 96–97failure to foresee, 23–25, 195–200U.S.atom bomb attack on Japan, 98,nuclear threat to the U.S., 157–163100–101, 161–162About the AuthorsSimon Ramo received a Ph.D.degree magna cum laude from the California Institute of Technology.A pioneer in electronics research and development, he was awarded the National Medal of Science by President Carter.Ramo has been a leader in developing technology for national defense, becoming the chief scientist and technical director of the United States’ largest defense program, the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).He received the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the United States’ highest civilian award, from President Reagan.A founder and principal executive of several successful high-tech companies including TRW Inc.(Thompson Ramo Wooldridge), he has been inducted into the Business Hall of Fame.Ramo’s text-books in science, engineering, and management have been trans-lated into numerous foreign languages and are used in universitiesthroughout the world.His Extraordinary Tennis for the Ordinary Player holds the sales record for books on tennis.Ronald D.Sugar is chairman of the board and chief executive officer of the Northrop Grumman Corporation.He was previously president of Litton Industries Inc., president of TRW Aerospace, and chief financial officer of TRW Inc.He is past chairman of the U.S.Aerospace Industries Association and serves as a director on corporate, university, cultural, and charitable institution boards.Sugar is a summa cum laude graduate of the University of California, Los Angeles, from which institution he received a doc-torate degree in engineering and was honored as Engineering Alumnus of the Year.He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society, and a fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
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.and, 26–27nuclear weapons and, 126, 157–158,Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor,159, 161–16398–101100 acts/100 days scenario, 122–124key problems of, 89, 90, 95–97, 106,other possibilities for, 126–127108, 111–112, 145–156,robotic birds in warfare and,189–194165–168, 170–171North Korea and, 110–111,in the U.S., 89, 96, 101, 106,139–140121–129, 135nuclear threat to, 157–163Third Reich, 24, 33, 99, 100nuclear weapons of, 160Time, inadequate, 61prediction markets in, 2–3Timing of occurrence:price of oil and, 174, 178–179of all-electric automobiles, 119–120rivalry with China, 131–133in Four-Measures rating, 49, 51,space race with the USSR, 20–22,65–66137–138for machine-based teaching,terrorism in, 89, 96, 101, 106,154–156121–129, 135for nuclear SuperGrid, 185–187Vietnam War and, 26, 165nuclear threat to the U.S., 161–163war in Saudi Arabia and, 195–200price of oil in $100 range, 179World War II and, 24–26, 96,of robotic birds, 170–17198–101, 161–162of terrorism in the U.S., 127–129U.S.Air Force, 52, 53–57war in Saudi Arabia, 199–200U.S.Congress, 37–38Transient effects, 75U.S.Department of Defense (DoD):TRW Inc., 20–21, 50–52aerial refueling tankers and, 53–57228IndexU.S.Department of Defense ( Cont.):Wars ( Cont.):China and, 131, 135, 138–139,robotic birds in, 165–168, 170–171141–143Saudi Arabia and, 195–200intercontinental ballistic missilesover Taiwan, 142–143(ICBMs) and, 17–22, 50–52( See also names of specific wars)nuclear weapons and, 17–19Watson, Thomas, Jr., 17satellites and, 19–22Watson, Thomas, Sr., 17U.S.Department of Homeland Security,Weather forecasting, 4–5, 28, 88123–124, 126, 127Welch, Jack, 63U.S.Department of Justice, 37–38Welfare system, 90U.S.Navy, 138–139Western Union, telegraph versusU.S.Space Foundation, 21telephone and, 12–14, 73USSR ( see Soviet Union, former)Westinghouse, electricity-basedtechnology and, 16VWhitman, Christine Todd, 182Vacuum tubes, 17, 82Wind power, 83–84, 176, 178–179Vattenfall AB, 175World War I:Venture capital, 94, 142failure to predict, 25Victoria, Queen of England, 24impact of, 24, 96Vietnam War, 26, 165World War II:Visualization, 102–103extrapolation in predicting, 77–79failure to predict, 24–25WJapanese attack on Pearl Harbor,Wal-Mart, 7398–101Wars:nuclear technology following, 52in Afghanistan, 165, 167–168postwar predictions, 25–26complexity factor and, 106–107research and development (R&D)extrapolation in predicting, 77–79following, 96–97failure to foresee, 23–25, 195–200U.S.atom bomb attack on Japan, 98,nuclear threat to the U.S., 157–163100–101, 161–162About the AuthorsSimon Ramo received a Ph.D.degree magna cum laude from the California Institute of Technology.A pioneer in electronics research and development, he was awarded the National Medal of Science by President Carter.Ramo has been a leader in developing technology for national defense, becoming the chief scientist and technical director of the United States’ largest defense program, the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).He received the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the United States’ highest civilian award, from President Reagan.A founder and principal executive of several successful high-tech companies including TRW Inc.(Thompson Ramo Wooldridge), he has been inducted into the Business Hall of Fame.Ramo’s text-books in science, engineering, and management have been trans-lated into numerous foreign languages and are used in universitiesthroughout the world.His Extraordinary Tennis for the Ordinary Player holds the sales record for books on tennis.Ronald D.Sugar is chairman of the board and chief executive officer of the Northrop Grumman Corporation.He was previously president of Litton Industries Inc., president of TRW Aerospace, and chief financial officer of TRW Inc.He is past chairman of the U.S.Aerospace Industries Association and serves as a director on corporate, university, cultural, and charitable institution boards.Sugar is a summa cum laude graduate of the University of California, Los Angeles, from which institution he received a doc-torate degree in engineering and was honored as Engineering Alumnus of the Year.He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society, and a fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]