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.Land is owned by the government and is leased byfarmers, but may be leased to a series of different farmers within a shorttime span, so that farmers lack incentive to make long-term investments intheir land or to take good care of it. The Chinese environment also faces more specific dangers.Already un-der way are a big increase in the number of cars, the three megaprojects,and the rapid disappearance of wetlands, whose harmful consequences willcontinue to accumulate in the future.The projected decrease in Chinesehousehold size to 2.7 people by the year 2015 will add 126 million newhouseholds (more than the total number of U.S.households), even ifChina's population size itself remains constant.With growing affluence andhence growing meat and fish consumption, environmental problems frommeat production and aquaculture, such as pollution from all the animaland fish droppings and eutrophication from uneaten feed for fish, will in-crease.Already, China is the world's largest producer of aquaculture-grownfood, and is the sole country in which more fish and aquatic foods are ob-tained from aquaculture than from wild fisheries.The world consequencesof China's catching up to First World levels of meat consumption exemplifythe broader issue, which I already illustrated by metal consumption, of thecurrent gap between per-capita First World and Third World consumptionand production rates.China will of course not tolerate being told not to as-pire to First World levels.But the world cannot sustain China and otherThird World countries and current First World countries all operating atFirst World levels.Offsetting all of those dangers and discouraging signs, there are also im-portant promising signs.Both WTO membership and the impending 2008Olympic Games in China have spurred the Chinese government to paymore attention to environmental problems.For instance, a $6 billion "greenwall" or tree belt is now under development around Beijing to protect thecity against dust and sandstorms.To reduce air pollution in Beijing, its citygovernment ordered that motor vehicles be converted to permit the use ofnatural gas and liquefied petroleum gas.China phased out lead in gasolinein little more than a year, something that Europe and the U.S.took manyyears to achieve.It recently decided to establish fuel efficiency minima forautomobiles, including even SUVs.New cars are required to meet exactingemission standards prevailing in Europe.China is already making a big effort to protect its outstanding biodiver-sity with 1,757 nature reserves covering 13% of its land area, not to mentionall of its zoos, botanical gardens, wildlife breeding centers, museums, andgene and cell banks.China uses some distinctive, environmentally friendly,traditional technologies on a large scale, such as the common South Chi-nese practice of raising fish in irrigated rice fields.That recycles the fishdroppings as natural fertilizer, increases rice production, uses fish to control insect pests and weeds, decreases herbicide and pesticide and synthetic fer-tilizer use, and yields more dietary protein and carbohydrate without in-creasing environmental damage.Encouraging signs in reafforestation arethe initiation of major tree plantations in 1978, and in 1998 the nationalban on logging and the start of the Natural Forest Conservation Program toreduce the risk of further destructive flooding.Since 1990, China has com-batted desertification on 15,000 square miles of land by reafforestation andfixation of sand dunes.The Grain-to-Green program, begun in 2000, givesgrain subsidies to farmers who convert cropland to forest or grassland, andis thereby reducing the use of environmentally sensitive steep hillsides foragriculture.How will it all end up? Like the rest of the world, China is lurching be-tween accelerating environmental damage and accelerating environmentalprotection [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
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